Meta description: The polls point to a Democratic takeover of the House of Representatives. The cost of living, Musk's money, and a Senate that resists: here's the landscape for the midterm elections.
Category: Politics
X post: The Republicans are shaking: they might lose the House on Tuesday, while the Democrats are still short in the Senate. The purse and Musk's millions are on the ballot. We tell you all about it.
Image caption: Larry Rubin, of the American Society of Mexico, during his interview about the US midterm elections. Photo: Milenio.com
Uncle Sam goes to vote on Tuesday, November 3, and the polls are looking pretty ugly for the Republican Party. According to an analysis by Larry Rubin, president of the American Society of Mexico, the GOP is at real risk of losing its majority in the House of Representatives, while the Democrats do not have enough votes to flip the Senate.
Rubin laid out the whole picture in an interview with Milenio, and although he acknowledged that surveys have been wrong before, especially in Donald Trump's elections, the trend is clear.
Why the Republicans might lose the House
It's the economy, as always. Or rather, it's people's pockets. The American voter is fed up with inflation, with the price of gas, with the rent eating up their entire paycheck. In fact, Infobae points out that the country is voting amid discontent over inflation and rising fuel prices, and that the polls anticipate a Republican defeat in the House.
“The American voter is focused on their pocketbook. At the end of the day, the economic issue is going to be an important factor, but so will security,” Rubin declared.
There's the crux of the matter, dear readers: when a carton of eggs costs what an hour of work does, people punish whoever is in power. And right now, that's Trump and his party.
How many seats could the Democrats win?
The projections leave little wiggle room for the Republicans. El Debate does the math and estimates that the party in the White House would lose its current majority “soundly,” with the Democrats projected to take between 230 and 240 of the 435 seats in the House.
Historically, the president's party almost always loses in midterm elections. Only once, in the atypical 2002 elections following the September 11 attacks, did the Republicans gain ground. This time, there's little reason to believe in a miracle.
The Senate resists, but there are hot races
Not everything is going the Democrats' way. Rubin was blunt: “The Democratic Party is not going to have enough to make a flip, that is, a change of majority in the Senate.”
Still, there are races that have people on the edge of their seats. In Texas, the gap between Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico has narrowed to within the margin of error of the polls. And here comes a fact that says a lot about the state of American democracy: Elon Musk put 150 million dollars into Paxton's campaign. One hundred and fifty million, with an m, from one single guy. If the Republicans lose in Texas, it would be a blow to the party, Rubin said.
The other race to watch is Ohio, where the seat vacated when JD Vance left is up for grabs. There, Democrat Sherrod Brown could become senator, which would change the current composition of the upper chamber, still controlled by the Republicans.
Trump's $5,000 promise
Desperation has a first and last name, and it announces itself with a check. Trump floated the possibility of a $5,000 bonus for every adult citizen if the Republicans win both chambers of Congress.
Rubin believes that proposal could sway undecided voters, although he noted that this factor doesn't show up in the polls. In other words: a promise of money, with no guarantee of fulfillment, weeks before the election. It's the oldest trick in the book, buying hope in installments.
What happens if Trump loses Congress?
The consequences wouldn't be long in coming. As Telemundo reports, Democrats in the House have already announced a broad oversight agenda, including investigations of the president, his family, and his government, if they manage to wrest control of the chamber from the Republicans.
In other words, the midterm elections are not just another round at the ballot box. They will define whether Trump governs with a free hand or with a Congress watching his every move.
Frequently Asked Questions
When are the midterm elections in the United States?
They will be held on Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
Could the Republicans lose the House of Representatives?
Yes. Polls and analysts like Larry Rubin see a real risk of losing their majority, with projections of 230 to 240 Democratic seats.
Can the Democrats win the Senate?
A full majority change is not expected, but key races in Texas and Ohio could alter the current composition.